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UN projects at least 1.8C warming
A UN report says the world must now limit and reverse an expected breach of the 1.5C warming goal.
What happened
UNEP's first dedicated report on a 1.5C overshoot says global temperature rise will cross the Paris Agreement threshold within years. It recommends deep emissions cuts to limit the peak, followed by sustained net-negative emissions to return below it. The agency warns risks rise with each extra fraction and year.
Numbers
- 1.5CParis Agreement warming threshold — Expected within the next few years
- at least 1.8CMost optimistic projected warming peak — Above pre-industrial levels
- 2015Year Paris Agreement was adopted — Set the 1.5C goal
Questions
- Why does 1.5C matter?
- Countries adopted it in the 2015 Paris Agreement as a limit intended to avoid more severe climate harms.
- What would lower temperatures again?
- The proposed pathway pairs rapid greenhouse-gas cuts with sustained net-negative emissions, meaning more carbon dioxide is removed than released.
- What risks rise during overshoot?
- The report lists more severe extreme weather, ecosystem losses, pressure on food and water supplies, and rising risks for human health.
- How low could warming peak?
- Even the most optimistic scenario reaches 1.8C above pre-industrial levels; most other scenarios project higher peaks before any decline.
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The catch
The report gives no date for returning below 1.5C, and outcomes depend on future emissions cuts and removals.