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El Niño forecast to last through February
The UN weather agency expects El Niño to strengthen, raising risks of heat, drought and flooding worldwide.
What happened
The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño is firmly established and is expected to become very strong in coming months. It forecast that the Pacific climate pattern will persist through February next year, altering rainfall and temperature patterns and increasing associated risks of floods, droughts and extreme heat.
Numbers
- Near 100%chance of persistence through February — WMO forecast
- Late 2026expected period of peak intensity — Very strong event forecast
- Four decadesspan of WMO monitoring records — Potential record strength
Questions
- What is El Niño?
- It is a natural Pacific Ocean-atmosphere pattern that warms central and eastern equatorial waters and changes winds, pressure and rainfall worldwide.
- Why does it raise weather risks?
- Its changes to ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation can shift where rain falls, increasing the chance of droughts, floods and heat.
- How could warming affect the forecast?
- El Niño is not caused by climate change, but scientists expect it to add to heat from a planet warming through fossil-fuel emissions.
- Who is being urged to prepare?
- Authorities and sectors sensitive to climate conditions, including agriculture and health, are being urged to prepare for possible severe impacts.
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The catch
The forecast describes heightened risks, not a prediction that every affected region will face extremes.
Local effects will vary.