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El Niño may be strongest since 1950
The WMO expects a strengthening El Niño to reshape global temperature and rainfall patterns before a December peak.
What happened
The World Meteorological Organization forecast that El Niño will strengthen through December and could rank among the strongest events since 1950. It expects above-average temperatures across much of the world over coming months and changed rainfall patterns, raising drought and flood risks in different regions.
Numbers
- Since 1950Benchmark for potential event strength — Could rank among strongest
- +3.7°CForecast Pacific surface temperature anomaly — For October through December
- Near 100%Chance of persistence through February — Into 2027
- 13 centresCentres behind forecast consensus
Questions
- What is El Niño?
- El Niño is warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which can change winds, pressure and rainfall around the world.
- How long could it last?
- The WMO and national and international meteorological centres expect the event to continue through February 2027, after reaching its forecast peak.
- Why is its strength notable?
- Forecast Pacific surface warming could set a new observed record for the October-to-December period, exceeding the previous benchmark.
- How might the event affect people?
- Higher heat, altered rainfall, drought and flooding can affect economies, ecosystems and communities, according to the WMO's seasonal outlook.
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The catch
Forecasts identify broad seasonal patterns, not exact local weather or which areas will face drought or floods.
Local effects can differ.