IMF lifts global growth forecast to 3.1%

The IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.1%, pointing to investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure that is offsetting part of the energy-price drag. It warned that gains are concentrated, while debt-funded AI expansion, higher public borrowing costs and weaker returns could unsettle financial markets.

• 3.1%IMF global growth forecast this year
• 3.0%IMF forecast issued in July
• 3.4%IMF global growth forecast next year
• 40%Jobs AI could affect globally — Over time

Q1

Why can AI spending raise growth?

Building data and computing infrastructure increases demand and investment, helping offset part of the drag from higher energy prices.

Q2

Where will gains be concentrated?

The United States and China dominate global demand for imported AI chips and related equipment, concentrating potential gains there.

Q3

What could trigger a correction?

Lower AI investment or weaker returns could unsettle markets, especially where companies and investors borrowed to finance expansion.

Q4

What could AI change for workers?

The IMF expects AI to affect many jobs through enhanced work, diminished roles, job losses and changes to tax revenue.